We placed 15 bets yesterday, and we ended the affair a little better than even. We’ll always take that.
Sunday baseball today, plus motorsports and a little more college football.
St. Louis at Cincinnati
We begin on the spot-based side, in Cincinnati where Brady Singer’s been pitching well again and the Reds, despite playing terrible baseball over the last couple weeks, are still about as good as the Cardinals.
Pick: Cincinnati to win –140. 0.51 units to win 0.36. Pallante and Singer must start.
Miami at New York (NL)
Heat Index’s first choice is once again the Mets.
Pick: New York to win –169. 0.42 units to win 0.25. Alcantara and Senga must start.
Anaheim at Houston
Back to spot-based, we like Hunter Brown a lot in a big game for the Astros.
Pick: Houston to win –160. 0.58 units to win 0.36. Soriano and Brown must start.
New York (AL) at Chicago (AL)
Heat Index’s second choice is, again, the Yankees.
Pick: New York to win –176. 0.44 units to win 0.25. Gil and Perez must start.
Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina
We keep doing it, and it’s mostly working. Unders and underdogs. (We don’t like those as much with Miami and Notre Dame because our suspicion is that Notre Dame is too much better than Miami, but we’re worried about Miami’s offense playing against a debuting defensive coordinator.)
Pick: Virginia Tech to win +245. 0.05 units to win 0.12.
Pick: Under 51.5 (–110). 0.14 units to win 0.13.
Southern 500 (NASCAR)
Erik Jones won this a couple years ago and Toyotas qualified well. We like him to sneak into that top ten at this price.
Pick: Erik Jones to finish top ten +280. 0.04 units to win 0.11.
Music City Grand Prix (IndyCar)
Our favorite pick, one last time for the season. IndyCar’s back on an oval.
Pick: Winning engine – Chevrolet (–200). 2.58 units to win 1.29.
Dutch Grand Prix (F1)
And in the early action, we like the polesitter. As usual.
Pick: Oscar Piastri to win –165. 0.21 units to win 0.13.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –495.03 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 674 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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