Good little day yesterday. Taking another superspeedway NASCAR shot today.
Ohio State at Michigan State
It’s mostly been a reliable year for Ohio State. They win they ones they should. They lose the ones we expect. Maybe that changes today, or maybe they give MSU a run, but this looks like a good afternoon for Sparty.
Pick: Michigan State –10 (–109). 4.67 units to win 4.28.
NASCAR Cup Series at Atlanta
His odds aren’t quite as long as last week, but we’d kick ourselves all over the place if he pulled it off and we didn’t ride with him again. 23XI showed at Daytona how much speed they can have at superspeedways. Herbst showed he could harness it. His probability is lower than the median today, but in a format this random, those gaps aren’t as big as markets seem to think. That persists (we think) because there are so few superspeedway races every year.
Pick: Riley Herbst to win +12500. 4.55 units to win 568.75.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –568.00 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,079 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
