We went over our unit allotment yesterday for futures, so we’re going to hold tight and hope Nebraska and Illinois both win today. Just one pick, and it’s against the spread.
VCU vs. North Carolina
Maybe this is a sucker’s bet and I’m a sucker, but this is what I’m seeing:
- Caleb Wilson is still hurt, and that’s mostly baked into kenpom at this point but it can’t help UNC.
- UNC’s only favored by two on kenpom.
- For whatever it’s worth, the A-10 covered four out of five kenpom spreads in the NIT first round. At the time of year when conference “drift” has probably happened, because conferences mostly only play one another from January through the first half of March.
- For whatever it’s worth, the ACC has covered one kenpom spread, lost against two, and hit one on the head in the NIT and NCAAT.
- I could see public bettors seeing a 6-seed as only a 2.5-point favorite and jumping on that, or some derivation of that idea.
Pick: VCU +2.5 (–115). 4.51 units to win 3.92.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –573.68 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,103 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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