Yesterday? We got Nick Kurtzed.
Today? We are staying away from Nick Kurtz.
Philadelphia at New York (AL)
This is pretty expensive for a team playing the Yankees on the road, but despite Ranger Suárez’s recent red flags (sinking strikeouts, rising walks), he’s yet to post a stat line in a start this season with a 5.00 FIP or worse. Marcus Stroman had his best outing of the year in Atlanta, and he was solid against Seattle before that. But the body of Stroman’s work suggests a lineup like Philadelphia’s should cause him problems.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –130. 1.55 units to win 1.19. Suárez and Stroman must start.
Arizona at Pittsburgh
Here too, the price is steep, especially with so much attention being paid to Eugenio Suárez’s trade market. But through June 30th, Andrew Heaney was vulnerable, and since June 30th, he’s allowed 14 runs in nine innings. Making it worse? FIP suggests he should’ve allowed 12.76. That’s really hard to do.
Heaney’s one of those pitchers we come back to because we think of him as a pro. But even a pro faces a tall task when he’s got the Pirates on his back.
Pick: Arizona to win –135. 1.61 units to win 1.19. Kelly and Heaney must start.
Miami at Milwaukee
Since June 13th, who has the most wins in baseball? If you guessed the Brewers, you’re correct, just as you are if you guessed the Blue Jays. Tied with those teams in the win column, though, is the Miami Marlins. Over the stretch starting June 13th, the Marlins are 24–12. They’re actually better if you draw the line at June 22nd (though the 13th is still a very selective sample).
Some of this is schedule. At one point, the Marlins drew the Braves, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Twins all in a row. But at the same time…those are good rosters. Some of why they’re bad teams is that they ran into the Marlins over a stretch where the Marlins were a good team.
We understand the qualms around Janson Junk—the doubts that he can keep this up. But frankly, Jose Quintana’s a lot less likely to sustain his ERA. Junk’s roughly matches the average of his FIP and xERA. Quintana’s is a whole run better.
The Marlins shouldn’t be favored today or anything like that. But these odds are too long, and the argument that the Brewers are unstoppable right now can be applied almost as easily to their guests.
Pick: Miami to win +143. 0.83 units to win 1.19. Junk and Quintana must start.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –485.98 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 518 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
