When our MLB moneylines are going well, we often point out their historical streakiness. For the sake of balance, then: We enter today having lost two in a row.
MLB Moneyline
Between Alex Bregman’s paternity leave and that whole “allowed 14 runs in three innings” thing the other night, it’s understandable for the market to reflect a poor impression of the Red Sox. We think that creates value. They’ve got the bats to fill in for Bregman, Sean Newcomb’s been striking a lot of hitters out, and Zack Littell’s struggled with the long ball. Plus, the Red Sox are just the better team. On paper and (narrowly) in the standings so far.
Pick: Boston to win +122. 15.00 units to win 18.30. Newcomb and Littell must start.
World Series
The Mets have played well enough so far to outpace the markets, even with the markets opening rather high on these guys. We’ll add them to our postseason mix.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +1600. 2.00 units to win 32.00.
AL Central
On the regular season side, the Twins have stunk so far but the pieces are still there. No one is inevitable in the AL Central. Except for maybe the White Sox. In a bad way.
Pick: Minnesota to win +500. 2.00 units to win 10.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –102.79 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 296 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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