Our early-season college football track record isn’t good. Neither is our NASCAR track record. Neither is our late-season MLB track record, though the spot-based picks are still doing well.
In short: Still small units today.
Kansas State vs. Iowa State
The fundamentals favor Kansas State here. K-State should be the better team. But under Chris Klieman, the Wildcats have failed to seize opportunities, and where the Rocco Becht edition of Matt Campbell’s Iowa State has so far set itself apart is that it’s done the opposite. Bottom line? We think this is a coin toss, but we don’t trust either offense to click right away. Especially not when the opposing staff knows so thoroughly what they’ll be trying to do.
Pick: Iowa State to win +133. 0.17 units to win 0.23.
Pick: Under 51.5 (–110). 0.25 units to win 0.23.
Mercer vs. UC Davis
I want to be clear: We think highly of what Mercer head coach Mike Jacobs is doing in Macon. But while UC Davis couldn’t measure up against the MVFC last year, the Big Sky was a cut above the SoCon by enough that even its second-best team should beat the SoCon’s best. And honestly, Tim Plough might have the Aggies better than the Big Sky’s second chair.
Pick: UC Davis –3 (–130). 0.30 units to win 0.23.
Boston at New York (AL)
We were really high on the Yankees as recently as Thursday. Over the long term, we’re still high on them. We like Will Warren, too. But we do think the Yankees are headcases, and we do think Garrett Crochet’s a good bet at this point. We doubted him for a long time, but he keeps doing it.
Pick: Boston to win –113. 0.39 units to win 0.35. Crochet and Warren must start.
Washington at Philadelphia
Heat Index’s second choice is the Phillies, and we aren’t as worried about it as we were last night. Aaron Nola wasn’t great in his return from the IL, but he was solid for a while. In that kind of situation, that’s a good sign.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –247. 0.56 units to win 0.23. Parker and Nola must start.
Kansas City at Detroit
We think the Tigers are fixed, but we don’t think Chris Paddack is fixed. Michael Wacha is a hero of these bets.
Pick: Kansas City to win +107. 0.32 units to win 0.34. Wacha and Paddack must start.
Colorado at Pittsburgh
This line is showing way too much respect to the Pirates and way too little to Kyle Freeland’s FIP.
Pick: Colorado to win +158. 0.22 units to win 0.35. Freeland and Burrows must start.
Cleveland at Texas
Over the last 6+ series, the Rangers have a 91 wRC+ and a 129 FIP–. Combined, they’ve been playing the worst baseball in the majors. Jack Leiter hasn’t been helping the cause.
Pick: Cleveland to win +109. 0.32 to win 0.35. Allen and Leiter must start.
San Francisco at Milwaukee
This is Heat Index’s second choice. It has expensive taste today.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –143. 0.33 units to win 0.23. Webb and Peralta must start.
Los Angeles at San Diego
Nestor Cortes pitches tonight for the Padres. How many times will the Dodgers broadcast show the Freddie Freeman grand slam?
Pick: Los Angeles to win –127. 0.44 units to win 0.35. Glasnow and Cortes must start.
Coke Zero Sugar 400
This is the race Harrison Burton won last year, and while B.J. McLeod is roughly six times the longshot Burton was, he did 1) successfully finish at a superspeedway in June in Atlanta with the same ride and 2) notch a pair of top-ten finishes in this race in 2021 and 2022. At a superspeedway, 500-to-1 is too long if you can squint and see it.
Pick: B.J. McLeod to win +50000. 0.01 unit to win 5.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –495.44 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 622 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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