We dodged a Nationals-branded bullet, enjoyed an evening with Kyle Schwarber, and got swept on Heat Index, which is mildly concerning. Now, it’s Tuesday. We like Tuesday.
Philadelphia at Cincinnati
We’re in on the Phillies again tonight, with Ranger Suárez’s walks back down and bettors still hesitant to fully turn on Brady Singer and/or the Reds. We’re worried about the rain here, but the Phillies’ bullpen is relatively fresh and even the often inexplicable Reds shouldn’t be able to out-rally Philadelphia’s clubhouse if the game does stop halfway through.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –148. 1.68 units to win 1.14. Suárez and Singer must start.
Washington at Kansas City
We’re also interested in Nationals/Royals, but on the other side. Mitchell Parker had a breakthrough rookie season, but his second act has disappointed, and two recent strong starts gave way to a return to meatballs. He doesn’t strike enough batters out to get away with the downside. Meanwhile, Michael Wacha continues to flourish in his 30’s.
Pick: Kansas City to win –190. 2.16 units to win 1.14. Parker and Wacha must start.
Los Angeles at Anaheim
Heat Index likes the Dodgers again tonight, and while that goes against our Tuesday Winners policy, we let Heat Index do its thing. We do have to like an evening of Emmet Sheehan vs. Victor Mederos at odds longer than –200.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –182. 1.12 units to win 0.62. Sheehan and Mederos must start.
Tampa Bay at Sacramento
Heat Index’s second choice is again the A’s, and we wish they were an underdog here but we’ll take it. I do think this is one where markets might not want to make the A’s that much of a favorite, even if they probably deserve a more expensive price. Jacob Lopez keeps doing the thing.
Pick: Sacramento to win –108. 0.66 units to win 0.61. Baz and Lopez must start.
NLCS
For our first future, we’re back on the Cubs to win the pennant. It’s hard to see more than a 1-in-20 chance they miss the playoffs, especially with the Mets more significantly struggling. In a portfolio like ours, it’s big to get upside on as many playoff teams as possible.
Pick: Chicago to win +850. 2.00 units to win 17.00.
World Series
In other hysteria, we’re in on the Yankees as well. It’s easier to see them missing the playoff field—there are more contenders in the AL—but this is still valuable. They got a good little win last night and there’s a ton of season left to go.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +1400. 2.00 units to win 28.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –487.72 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 581 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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