A bad British Open for us, but a good start to baseball after the All-Star Break. Our effort to keep it going today…
Anaheim at Philadelphia
Taijuan Walker doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, and neither do the Phillies overall right now. But, Walker does have a 3.88 FIP as a starter this year, and Yusei Kikuchi—who’s underwhelmed in all but one of his MLB seasons—has been underwhelming, especially lately. The Phillies are a lot better than the Angels on paper. They’re playing this game at home. I think the market’s overthinking this.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –126. 0.71 units to win 0.56. Kikuchi and Walker must start.
Chicago (AL) at Pittsburgh
The White Sox are the White Sox, but Adrian Houser’s been a beast for them, and the Pirates are the Pirates. It wouldn’t be surprising if Houser starting inspires a little confidence in a team that’s exhibited major mental hurdles the last few years, routinely underperforming even its meager on-paper talent. They’re 6–3 when he starts. That’s not meaningful outside of the confidence piece, but we do like them to make it 7–3.
Pick: Chicago to win +117. 0.48 units to win 0.56. Houser and Burrows must start.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –487.99 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 498 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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