Good stuff yesterday, with a 3–0 performance bringing this “spot” approach up to a .581 win percentage against –125 average odds, good for a 4.65% expected average return. Plugging that into our equation for “p” in our Kelly criterion, we multiply our unit today by about 4.5x. The big swings should abate when we have a better grasp of our expected return with this approach, but for now, we’re hoping on a win streak.
Toronto at Boston
The Red Sox went west with a lot of momentum and came back with the reality setting in, with the atmosphere getting so bad this week that—referring to the Rafael Devers trade—Alex Cora said it’s best in the clubhouse to not talk about it. We’ll let the expert be the expert, and we do think the Red Sox can turn it around, but this line seems to be making a lot out of Brayan Bello’s last couple starts, not much out of the Red Sox’ ugly California baseball, and a weirdly large amount out of both teams’ home/road splits? Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but it feels like the headline home/away numbers are getting some weight. Given whom the Blue Jays have played at home, they shouldn’t be.
Pick: Toronto to win +110. 3.50 units to win 3.85. Berríos and Bello must start.
St. Louis at Cleveland
Sonny Gray did fine his last start out, though he was on a quick hook. We don’t think he’s in danger of melting down, but we do think that possibility’s higher for him than for most. Mostly, these are two teams about as good as one another, and the game’s in Cleveland.
Pick: Cleveland to win +112. 3.44 units to win 3.85. Gray and Ortiz must start.
Philadelphia at Atlanta
People seem to want Bryce Elder to be a good starting pitcher, and while he shows flashes of that and might become one, he hasn’t really been that so far in his career. Mick Abel does the thing a lot where he allows a zillion home runs, but freed from nightmare matchups against Astros pitching and possibly shaken up by a rain delay, it’s not outrageous to think the Phillies’ bats will break back out in a couple hours here.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +157. 2.46 units to win 3.86. Abel and Elder must start.
Minnesota at Detroit
Sawyer Gipson-Long hasn’t been great, but these Tigers are winners and you can’t say that about these Twins. Also, David Festa’s been worse.
Pick: Detroit to win –137. 5.28 units to win 3.85. Festa and Gipson-Long must start.
San Francisco at Chicago (AL)
Aaron Civale is a fine pitcher, but he’s probably a worse version of himself right now than models assume, given he’s 1) on the White Sox and 2) new to the White Sox. For better and worse, there’s an acclimation period.
Pick: San Francisco to win –151. 5.82 units to win 3.85. Roupp and Civale must start.
World Series
Not a lot of new value today, so we’ll go with the biggest value out there for both of these. The Rays are good. They’re a likely postseason team. I’m guessing some of the affordability here is because of uncertainty surrounding their home-field advantage, but that shouldn’t be a significantly bigger discrepancy than it is in the regular season, which basically means: If they’re good, they’re good.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +3000. 2.00 units to win 60.00.
NLCS
Over on the NL side, David Stearns and Craig Counsell and Josh Hader and Willy Adames and Devin Williams and Corbin Burnes are all long gone, and the Brewers are probably about to go ten games over .500. This is a good baseball team. We don’t know exactly why, but it is.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +2300. 2.00 units to win 46.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –397.12 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 424 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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