Dayton and VCU came through down the stretch last night, so we continue to tread water on the week. Two for today, both in the early afternoon:
Alabama at Auburn
Kenpom has this line at ten. That isn’t all that far from eight, of course, but we take what we can get. This is a game with a lot of public interest, and one where doubts about Auburn stemming from this week’s loss and Johni Broome’s brief absence are probably overblown. It’ll be an exciting game, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be as close as last time. Also…last time it was a nine-point final? Someone give me a study on the Mandela Effect and betting markets.
Pick: Auburn –8 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Seton Hall at UConn
Here’s a theory: UConn’s going to unlock Liam McNeeley soon on the offensive end.
It’s not that McNeeley’s played badly. He’s been a solid player all year. But the guy is too talented to grade out as UConn’s sixth-best offensive player or whatever it is over on EvanMiya. It’s been a weird season, given his injury, and he missed a ton of shots against Marquette this week. But I still have to believe UConn will get a little better, and that’s likelier to happen on the offensive end, with McNeeley’s scoring more or deferring more (could work either way) the clearest source of untapped upside.
Pick: Over 131.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –63.09 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 124 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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