It was a bad, bad weekend for our college basketball picks, but God bless the Eagles, who at least kept our average ROI static on the year.
Depending how this week goes, we may change the nature of our college basketball betting. We can’t keep getting our butt kicked this badly. In the meantime, though, back into the arena we go:
North Carolina @ Clemson
The market seems to be viewing this as a letdown game for Clemson, or the moment when UNC bounces back. Three reasons we’re rolling with the Tigers anyway:
First, UNC also had a big win on Saturday. It wasn’t as exciting as Clemson’s, but it was more impactful on where their season will end. UNC’s on the bubble. They beat a bubble team. That’s big.
Second, the last time UNC was on the bubble, they routinely blew opportunities like this one. The whole problem for UNC’s 2023 team was that they didn’t win Q1 games. I don’t trust Hubert Davis to pull together a talented but struggling roster. He has not done it before.
Third, Hubert Davis. Does the short turnaround favor the better coach? If so, we know which way we’re going.
Pick: Clemson –4.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Pick: Under 144.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –109.72 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 68 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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