The Marlins!
Nice little day yesterday. Not a lot of baseball options we like today, but we’re playing our bigger Sunday unit, so between that and the motorsports we’ve got a decent amount on the line.
Sacramento at Houston
This would be a four-game sweep if the A’s can pull it off. That’s possible, but we don’t buy that J.T. Ginn is good enough to make this fundamentally different from a standard A’s–vs.–Astros with the home-field advantage in Houston. Unfortunately, it’s the only one we like today, so all our baseball eggs are in this basket, but Sundays can be tough. Part of why it works to bet Saturday losers to win on Sundays is that Sundays are chaotic in the major leagues.
Pick: Houston to win –130. 2.88 units to win 2.22. Ginn and Gordon must start.
Brickyard 400
Kyle Larson won last year at the Brickyard, but Toyotas ran better than Chevrolets (and Fords). In qualifying this year, Toyotas again carried the day. As for which Toyota to take: Bubba Wallace is in that sweet spot where he qualified strong enough to be a serious contender but still has a big disparity between where he qualified and where he lines up in the odds.
Pick: Bubba Wallace to finish top five +275. 0.27 units to win 0.74.
Belgian Grand Prix (Formula 1)
The fact McLarens qualified first and second has us anticipating a higher than high probability one of the two wins this race. Norris, starting from the pole and not far enough behind Piastri in the standings to receive full B-car treatment, is the better option. We could take him at +120 to win the race, but it seems likeliest that if he loses it, it’ll come through losing the lead to Piastri at lights out. We think he can lead the first lap and lose. We don’t think he can win without leading the first lap.
Pick: Lando Norris to lead first lap and win +130. 0.57 units to win 0.74.
Grand Prix of Monterey (IndyCar)
Alex Palou is back on the pole, and even after last week’s missteps, it’s hard to bet against him. So, we’ll kind of bet on Palou, but for an extra few units (Palou’s listed at –200), we’ll take Colton Herta and the rest of the Hondas as well.
Pick: Honda to win –210. 1.55 units to win 0.74.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –485.21 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 521 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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