No dice last night, but we’re mostly biding our time anyway, stuck in a big ol’ mire.
All-Star Game
The over/under tonight is seven, which is not coincidentally both the average and the median number of runs scored across the last seven All-Star Games. (And the last 19, too!) Reasons to believe this year’s game might go over that total include Atlanta being a hitter’s park, the increase in pitchers opting out, and Major League Baseball potentially juicing the balls.
The problems with those theories:
- Atlanta’s been about a league-average park the last few years, losing some of its hitter’s park bona fides post-Covid, possibly due to Braves weirdness but more likely due to the universal use of humidors from 2022 onwards.
- More and more pitchers are opting out, but that trends towards more relievers, who might not be better than starters but are at least used to the role.
- Baseballs have been juiced and de-juiced and juiced again for years. Surely, if something intentional was happening, we’d have seen it the last few seasons.
Maybe I’m a sucker here, but if we use that sample of the last 19 All-Star Games—which gets us to an average and median of seven without including the heart of the steroid era—we see eight unders, seven overs, and four pushes against a seven-run total. That implies an expected return of five percent here. We’ll peg it at a two and a half-percent return.
Pick: Under 7 +100. 0.30 units to win 0.30.
World Series
The Blue Jays lead the AL East at the All-Star Break. That’s very meaningful. With a wide range of odds available, betting them at the long end right now is positive-value, and by a decent amount.
Pick: Toronto to win +2400. 2.00 units to win 48.00.
AL West
More narrowly, the Mariners aren’t the worst bet at this price to come back and take the AL West. They trail by five games, but it’s unlikely the Rangers will catch the Astros, and there are reasons to believe second half regression will favor Seattle. While the Mariners are outscoring Houston, something they haven’t done since 2016, they’re being outpitched by a staff leaning heavily on Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon, and Brandon Walter. It’s hard to see that holding up over the second half as scouting reports get around, workload mounts, and the M’s get more starts from Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and possibly even Bryce Miller.
Pick: Seattle to win +350. 2.00 units to win 7.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –487.85 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 489 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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