We went 9–7 yesterday, which would have continued our strong week had we not chosen the wrong four games to make our four bigger bets of the day. Hopefully that was a small-sample thing, but if it keeps happening, we have some adjustments in mind.
Our approach here involves consulting kenpom, consulting Nate Silver’s ratings, consulting our own tracker of how conferences are over and underperforming kenpom, and consulting our own tracker of where totals are landing relative to the kenpom number.
We’ll include our one college basketball future for the day at the bottom.
Mississippi State vs. Baylor
The concern here is Langston Love’s injury, but the evidence is large enough that the SEC is overrated for us to take the Bears.
Pick: Baylor +1.5 (–120). 5.00 units to win 4.17.
Alabama vs. Robert Morris
Both Pomeroy and Silver favor RMU here. Injuries should be a wash.
Pick: Robert Morris +22 (–105). 5.00 units to win 4.76.
Iowa State vs. Lipscomb
We only have one ASUN data point in our over/underrated tracker, and our Big 12 numbers don’t tell much of a story. With Keshon Gilbert out, we don’t think Iowa State should be better, but I wonder if that’s what bettors are seeing? We’ll ride with Pomeroy and Silver, taking the Bisons to keep it close-ish.
Pick: Lipscomb +14 (–105). 15.00 units to win 14.29.
Memphis vs. Colorado State
This one’s the hardest, because kenpom very likely overrates the Mountain West but Memphis is without Tyrese Hunter. We pivot instead to the total, which averaged landing 1.5 points lower than the kenpom number yesterday. (Hunter’s absence should hurt Memphis roughly equally on each side of the ball.)
Pick: Under 147.5 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Duke vs. Mount St. Mary’s
We thought the ACC would be underrated, but it hasn’t been so far. No concerns going with the fundamentals here, then.
Pick: Mount St. Mary’s +32.5 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt
There’s a chance kenpom’s underrating the WCC. We don’t need that to justify taking this one, though. The SEC side is enough.
Pick: Saint Mary’s –4.5 (–115). 5.00 units to win 4.35.
Mississippi vs. North Carolina
We like UNC conceptually and on the basis of conference, but Mississippi’s maybe been the better team this year? It’s too close to say. We’ll again go with the total, which our approach says should be one point lower.
Pick: Under 155.5 (–112). 5.00 units to win 4.46.
Maryland vs. Grand Canyon
Kenpom and Silver have a big gap on this one. Not seeing a clear reason for that, we go to the total again.
Pick: Under 149 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Florida vs. Norfolk State
Getting into the later games, we’re tempted to make this one of our bigger plays. The nature of 1 vs. 16 games (and our lack of understanding of that nature) makes us hold off. Still, give us the side favored by both those systems and also by our conference-based theories.
Pick: Norfolk State +28 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Kentucky vs. Troy
Kenpom and Silver are again split here, but any sort of SEC adjustment and any sort of Jaxson Robinson adjustment pushes this towards Troy.
Pick: Troy +11.5 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Marquette vs. New Mexico
The Mountain West is overrated. There are indications the Big East is underrated. People like to write off Shaka Smart in March. Give us a big one here.
Pick: Marquette –4 (–110). 15.00 units to win 13.64.
Arizona vs. Akron
This pick’s based off the combined fundamentals (kenpom and Silver), but we’re curious to see where the MAC shakes out when March is said and done. Strong performance by Kent State the other night in the NIT.
Pick: Akron +14 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
UConn vs. Oklahoma
Even with the Big East being underrated and the SEC being overrated, the size of the spread on UConn gives us pause. Thankfully, this is our favorite over today.
Pick: Over 147 (–112). 15.00 units to win 13.39.
Illinois vs. Xavier
The Big Ten might be underrated. We’re more confident that the Big East is. The fundamentals lean towards Xavier as well.
Pick: Xavier +4 (–105). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Michigan State vs. Bryant
We’re hesitant to put so much on an under, since we’ve been hesitant on unders overall lately, but our approach’s numbers support it (no support for either side of the spread) and there’s some theory to back it up. Bryant’s a fast-paced team who relies heavily on second-chances. Michigan State is better (should control the pace) and is strong on the defensive glass. If that’s not how this goes, we can also fall back on Michigan State’s terrible perimeter shooting, which is baked into the price but is still a path to an under.
Pick: Under 152.5 (–110). 15.00 units to win 13.64.
Oregon vs. Liberty
Liberty’s burned us this year a number of times. We like our approach, though.
Pick: Liberty +7 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
NIT
This is still the price you get if you don’t know Chattanooga’s playing at home tomorrow. We will take that value again.
Pick: Chattanooga to win +8000. 1.00 unit to win 80.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –154.02 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 183 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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