Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,539 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.3% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
NLCS
There are things in nature we aren’t built to understand, and for me, one of them is why the market is treating a team that’s 5-in-6 likely to win its division and then, given that, at worst 2-in-5 likely to win the Division Series as only 1-in-9 likely to win the pennant. That implies only a 1-in-3 chance of winning the NLCS should they make it. If it’s Atlanta vs. San Francisco or Atlanta vs. St. Louis, these guys might be favored.
Pick: Atlanta to win +800. Low confidence.
