Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,532 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.4% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and the odds come from Bovada due to the lack of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
MLB Home Run Leader
It’s vastly unlikely that anyone outside of the current three home run leaders—Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (45), Shohei Ohtani (44), and Salvador Perez (43)—will take the lead. Marcus Semien and Fernando Tatís Jr. each have yet to reach the 40 mark. So, we can exclude them from consideration.
For the other three, the rate at which home runs are expected to come looks similar. FanGraphs projects all three to hit four home runs the rest of the year, with Guerrero getting one extra game in which to do it. Going by HR/PA and doing a Monte Carlo simulation over the rest of the year, Guerrero takes the crown in roughly sixty percent of instances that don’t end in a tie. It’s a rough way to do it, but it’s not meaningless, and given he’s currently in the lead, it passes the smell test.
Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +100. Medium confidence.
