Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,088 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 4% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 4%’s into a whole lot more than 4% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
If you want futures value, it’s still on just Atlanta and Houston, though the Padres’ LDS line is worth a look. Our portfolio here is full of all three of those teams, so we’re still holding in those markets. For today, though…
Atlanta vs. Miami
To be clear, Atlanta’s the deserved favorite in this one. These are long odds for an individual game, and this is a value play, not an outright prediction.
Still, the value’s there. While Starling Marte’s absence is certainly hurting the Marlins, they’re playing one of their stronger lineups (Chad Wallach and Matt Joyce are better on paper than Jorge Alfaro and Lewis Brinson), and the impact of yesterday’s bullpen work across the two teams should be roughly equal.
More than anything, this is a bet that Ian Anderson’s sample size is still too small to be predictive. He’s been great, and we wish him all the best, but there are some numerical reasons to doubt, mainly that even if you count his outing against the Reds last week, he only has seven career MLB starts.
Pick: Miami to win +170. Low confidence.
