Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,134 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 2%’s into a whole lot more than 2% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
Los Angeles vs. Tampa Bay
It may sound trite to call an individual World Series game crucial, but the leverage tonight is higher than it was last night. The Rays have what should be their biggest pitching advantage of the series. They’re already down one game. This is the opportunity for Tampa Bay.
Which may be why, though the market as a whole is looking very efficient this morning, there’s a tiny bit of value to be had on the Dodgers run line. Part of this is Globe Life Field (though if wind affects the flight of the ball there, it should be blowing out to left tonight if the roof’s open). Part is probably recency bias applied to Tony Gonsolin. Part is the questionable existence of any advantage for being the home team, even at a neutral site.
Some of this, of course, is legitimate. But if you give Gonsolin a projection even a run and a half worse than his regular season stats (which is what one would generally expect from the righty, independent of recent results), this comes out as the best bet of the day. Again, the market’s efficient right now. But this is one spot where it might be missing.
Pick: Los Angeles -1.5 (+145). Low confidence.
