Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,627 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.1% isn’t amazing, but it’s not negative, and we do project a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One future today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
NLCS
This is a hedge—we’re in great shape if Boston or Atlanta wins their respective pennant, and in rough shape otherwise.
That said…these aren’t terrible odds on the Dodgers right now. If they do get past the Giants, they’ll be able to start Max Scherzer in Game 1 of the NLCS on normal rest, with Walker Buehler back to normal rest for Game 2. There’s a good chance they’d come out of those games with home-field advantage in the series.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +160. Low confidence.
