Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,360 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Arizona State vs. VCU
Marcus Bagley missed the Texas Southern game, ASU lost to Texas Southern, Marcus Bagley is missing tonight’s game…the logic is there. The problem is that by the data we have on Bagley, compiled from sporadic instances of health for the guy over the last two years, he hasn’t been all that good. He’s fine, but he’s a high-usage, low-efficiency option. That isn’t to say the Sun Devils are better without him—I don’t think they are—but this is a big departure from where we’d expect the odds to lie given it’s only Bagley who’s out.
Pick: Arizona State +4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Cal State-Bakersfield @ Idaho
Naseem Gaskin came to Bakersfield with a little bit of hype (he was the California Community College Athletic Association’s MVP last year), and he’s hurt, and maybe that’s what’s up with this line? It’s hard to see that moving this all the way to the Roadrunners being the underdog, though. That looks like too much.
Pick: Cal State-Bakersfield +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
