Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,446 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, for which odds come from Bovada due to the lack of a current/accurate online Vegas consensus.
AL Central
The picks below are a strange way of saying this pick. We’re doing it this way, though, because 1) we’re undefeated on high confidence picks all time and don’t want to jeopardize that on this one and 2) we want to put seven units on the White Sox.
Why seven units? So far, our portfolio has one unit each on Cleveland (10-to-1), Minnesota (16-to-1), and Kansas City (18-to-1) to win the AL Central. The shortest of those, Cleveland, would thereby pay back eleven units were Cleveland to indeed win the AL Central.
Today’s one of the first days I’ve seen the White Sox present even marginally positive eROI on their division future. This is an opportunity we’ve been waiting for as they’ve pulled further away in the Central and avoided a full-on La Russa-driven meltdown. Putting seven units on them doesn’t corner this market—we lose about a unit and a half now if they do win the division—but it leaves us profitable in the AL Central if the Sox do fall apart (still rather possible) while covering half of those three units we put down elsewhere, which had been making the AL Central our third-most heavily invested division so far and wasn’t dead weight but wasn’t looking great.
If you’re new to these picks, this is effectively a wash and I wouldn’t recommend taking it (look at Astros postseason odds instead, or the Mets or Brewers or Red Sox in some but not every capacity). But if you follow our futures portfolio exactly, this is a play we’re making.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win -450. Medium confidence.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win -450. Medium confidence.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win -450. Medium confidence.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win -450. Low confidence.
