Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,459 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.0% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Milwaukee @ Arizona
Brandon Woodruff’s spin rates haven’t been changing. This isn’t about that. It’s not even about the five home runs he’s allowed over his last three starts. Instead, it just seems that the market has Woodruff closer to his 1.94 ERA even though his FIP and xERA are up at 2.78 and 2.62. Those are still great, but they aren’t 1.94, and in a hitter’s park (yes, Chase Field has been a hitter’s park in recent years, even with the humidor), with the probably undervalued Brewers offense on the other side, this is a pretty advantageous number.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105). Low confidence.
