Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 825 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 9% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Just one pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
DePaul @ Seton Hall
Seton Hall is supposed to get Sandro Mamukelashvili back tonight, so it’s odd that the line has swung away from them on this one. It’s possible there are doubts about how he’ll fit in with lineups that have played well in his absence. It’s possible there’s an assumption of rust.
Whatever the case, the undefeated-in-conference-play Big East leader is hosting the last-place team in the league. DePaul has looked good exactly two times since mid-December, so while both have come against top-line competition (an overtime loss at Villanova, a 13-point home win against Butler), Seton Hall doesn’t exactly appear to be catching them at a bad time. Yes, the Pirates will need to protect the defensive glass better than they did against Providence last week, but that’s something Mamukelashvili excelled at last season, and even though they did allow the Friars 19 of 39 possible offensive boards last week, Seton Hall won that game by exactly nine, which matches the spread tonight.
It’s no sure thing—hard to find those this time of year—but Seton Hall should take care of business tonight.
Pick: Seton Hall -9 (-110). Low confidence.
