Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,981 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.7% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
LSU @ Alabama
It’s tempting to overthink this one. Xavier Pinson could play, Alabama might be getting too much credit for being able to stop a losing streak, four points is far from nothing, LSU’s got a great defense that loves to make teams shoot threes and Alabama keeps taking and missing a ton of threes.
But still, fundamentally, this is one Alabama needs more than LSU, and the market seems to think that matters. We’ll trust it here.
Pick: Alabama -4 (-110). Low confidence.
