Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,001 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.4% doesn’t sound amazing, but we’re publishing it, aren’t we?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Tennessee @ Mississippi State
Mississippi State’s a fine team, but I’m not sure Tennessee’s getting enough credit, both in general and tonight. The Vols are legitimately one of the nation’s good teams, probably the third-best team in the SEC, and a defensive force to such an extent that even having allowed 107 that one time to Kentucky, KenPom has them as the fifth-best stoppers in the country.
Such is life when you play ugly, and Tennessee plays ugly. Tonight, they should win ugly, exploiting their hosts’ questionable ball protection to scrap out yet another one and pull back even with Arkansas for third in the league.
Pick: Tennessee -1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
