Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 759 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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One pick today, and you probably have a little while to place it, since it’s a college basketball future.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Men’s Basketball National Championship
If you like having a portfolio, of sorts, for futures, this might be the best time to add Duke to the collection. The Blue Devils are pretty clearly either the best or the second-best team in the country. They’re a month removed from that loss to Stephen F. Austin, and with the exception of that game, they’ve passed every test they’ve faced. They’re well-rounded, with few clear weaknesses (they turn the ball over too much, but that’s about it). The ACC is both strong enough and weak enough that earning a number one seed looks likely, especially considering Duke draws Louisville at home in the regular season, meaning they’re favored in every single remaining game.
If you want them, now’s the time. Merry Christmas.
Pick: Duke to win (+1000). Low confidence.
