Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,864 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
The Citadel @ UNC-Asheville
The Citadel is slowing it down.
Relatively speaking.
For the last six seasons, ever since Duggar Baucom took over the program, the Bulldogs have always ranked in the top ten in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. This year, they’re only 54th. That isn’t slow, but relative to what we’ve seen from them before? Glacial. Evidently the odds have yet to catch up?
Pick: Under 154.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
