Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 477 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Just one pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Atlanta @ Toronto
Mike Foltynewicz managed his best start of the season Friday against the Mets. In the midst of a year that’s seen him suffer a 5.68 ERA thus far (with a 5.65 FIP to confirm he’s earned it) and a very much related month spent in AAA, he went out against a hot division rival and shut them down, to the tune of seven innings, one run, two hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts.
Unfortunately, that was just one start. And while Foltynewicz has been better since returning to the big leagues than he was before his demotion, he still hasn’t been great. In his four starts since returning, his FIP is 4.38 and he’s averaged a home run per start.
It’s better than it was, but it’s a small sample. It’s still too early to have much confidence in the guy who helped lead the Braves to last year’s division championship.
Pick: Toronto to win (+126). Low confidence.
