Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,510 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
ALCS: Division of Champion
The AL East is looking more than 50% likely to put three teams in the playoffs. If the Rays (or the Yankees, or both) hold off the Astros, they’ll have all three on the same side of the bracket, locking the division into an ALCS berth. The value here isn’t massive, but it’s positive, and it gives us a slightly higher floor on the Rays than we previously had (the Rays are a big hole for us right now).
Pick: AL East +130. Medium confidence.
