Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,011 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
We’re back. Apologies for the absence. There was a bug with one of the models we use for daily win probabilities and it took a while to get a workaround set up. But now, we’re back, without that bug to bite us.
Seattle @ San Francisco
Winners of six straight, the Mariners are suddenly one of a number of teams within striking distance of the Yankees for the last playoff spot in the American League.
That’s not meaningless, but don’t bet on them yet. The Mariners are still clearly in the bottom half of a two-tiered American League, and four of those six wins came against the impotent Rangers. Ljay Newsome is unproven, the Giants are humming themselves, and Logan Webb’s FIP indicates he’s due for some positive regression.
Pick: San Francisco -1.5 (+130). Low confidence.
