Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 520 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Just one pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Boston @ Toronto
The much-maligned Red Sox bullpen has been tasked with pitching the whole game tonight.
That might be a good thing for Boston.
Boston’s bullpen ranks sixth in the MLB in fWAR. It’s seventh in FIP. Eleventh in ERA. Seventh in Win Probability Added. Brandon Workman’s 2.51 FIP is the seventh-best of anyone FanGraphs deems a qualified reliever. Matt Barnes’ is 22nd in that 158-man sample. Marcus Walden’s is 57th.
Yes, the Red Sox bullpen doesn’t have Craig Kimbrel anymore. But it’s been better than last year’s was in the regular season. Of all the targets for blame on the Red Sox, the bullpen is an odd focus.
Pick: Under 10.5 (-105). Low confidence.
