Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,142 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, it’s positive. And you can do something with positive.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
Los Angeles vs. Tampa Bay
Tony Gonsolin’s playoffs haven’t gone as he hoped. Still, he’s a good enough pitcher on a short enough leash that he shouldn’t be the Dodgers’ undoing tonight. A risk to consider is whether Dave Roberts would punt on tonight if the Dodgers were to fall behind, using the second tier of his bullpen with the knowledge Walker Buehler could start tomorrow on normal rest. That’s an unlikely scenario. The more likely one is that tonight, in a low-scoring game, the Dodgers end the season.
We’ll see.
Pick: Los Angeles to win -130. Low confidence.
