Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,445 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.8% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Kansas City @ Anaheim
We’ve bet on Kris Bubic to win three of his last four starts, and he’s done that, so when this line spiked after opening at +120 yesterday, we got excited.
To be clear, the Royals are still underdogs. But the seeming reason for the line spiking—the Royals having to burn a lot of bullpen after Jackson Kowar struggled in his debut—is not one that actually helps the Angels. The guys the Royals burned stink. None of them are projected positive-fWAR players, if you trust FanGraphs’ Depth Charts (and, as you know if you read these semi-regularly, we do). Sure, if this turns into a bullpen-burner of a game, the Royals are in a little more trouble because that happened. But fewer than ten percent of games go into extra innings to begin with, many fewer than that last past the 11th or so, and this is, to begin with, a bet on Bubic, who the market seems to think is bad while we think he’s medium and his results have been good.
Again: Royals are more likely than not to lose. But this is great value.
Pick: Kansas City to win +142. Low confidence.
