Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,462 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.9% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Chicago (NL) @ Milwaukee
Here are the mechanics of this:
- My numbers, which don’t account for starting pitchers’ projected innings totals, have the Cubs at about 39% likely to win. FanGraphs’s, which do account for innings, have the Cubs at 36.3% likely to win, reflecting that Brandon Woodruff is better than his bullpen and will last deeper into the game than the average starter.
- Woodruff hasn’t outperformed his projections by an immense amount, at least in the realm of xERA and FIP. He’s also struggled lately, so no red-flag-do-not-bet-against-this-guy there.
- Zach Davies has a terrible xERA, but his FIP’s around expectations and he’s consistently had a better FIP than xERA over the course of his career. With FIP and xERA equally predictive of future ERA going season-to-season, having one in a good spot is enough to avoid a red-flag-do-not-bet-on-this-guy scenario with him.
- The FanGraphs numbers, at the time this is written, don’t yet account for the Brewers’ lineup, but compared to their most common lineup in FanGraphs’s expectations, the Crew have subbed in Manny Piña for Omar Narváez, Jace Peterson for Kolten Wong, and Tyrone Taylor for Jackie Bradley Jr. Piña/Narváez and Taylor/Bradley Jr. are each a wash, but Peterson’s about 1.1 fWAR worse than Wong in projections over the rest of the season if given equal PA’s. In the bullpen, Devin Williams should be expected to be down, costing the Brewers another 0.4 fWAR compared to an average night.
- The Cubs’ lineup isn’t posted yet at the time this is written, but the expectation is that Anthony Rizzo will be out, and two of Patrick Wisdom/Sergio Alcántara/Eric Sogard will play. Using the worst combination of those two numbers-wise (Alcántara/Sogard), you get a 1.5 fWAR dip that’s amplified by Tommy Nance’s 0.1 fWAR being stuck in AAA and Ryan Tepera’s 0.1 fWAR likely being down tonight.
- In sum, then, the Cubs are 0.2 fWAR more disadvantaged than the Brewers tonight, which broken up over 83 remaining games leaves them about 0.2% less likely to win than the 36.3% number we see above. At 36.1%, there’s upwards of a six percent expected return on this play, which is fairly good.
Long odds, and the Brewers certainly have been playing better of late, but the narrative likely overrates their chances here, and the narrative seems to have seeped into the market. These are imperfect calculations, but they’re the best I can offer, as is this bet in the context of today’s board.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +195. Low confidence.
