Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,458 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.9% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
St. Louis @ Detroit
What if—and hear me out—Tarik Skubal wasn’t doctoring the baseball?
Skubal’s was one of the names that popped up on a lot of lists of suspect pitchers after his spin rates dropped in his June 11th start. His slider drew considerable attention, experiencing the largest spin rate drop among pitches the lefty throws often. But then on Wednesday it bounced back up, and so did the spin rates on a number of Skubal’s other pitches, and upon closer investigation the slider dip looked bigger against his season average than it did over his last-month average, which brings up questions of its own.
It’s possible Skubal was doctoring the baseball. But even if that’s the case, there’s at least a small chance he’s still doing it, and thinks he can get away with it. Given the spin rate bounce last week, that seems at least plausible, and even the June 11th decrease was small enough and on a weak enough pitch that it seems the market may be applying other pitchers’ concerns to the rookie in Detroit, something that, given the magnitudes of the changes in question, is probably an overestimation.
Pick: Detroit +1.5 (-155). Low confidence.
