Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,465 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a futures bet today, and the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
ALCS
The AL picture currently looks like this: The Astros are clear favorites in the AL West. The White Sox are clear favorites in the AL Central. The Red Sox are clear favorites in the AL East. Behind those three teams, the Rays, A’s, Blue Jays, and Yankees are currently the most likely wild card combatants, in that order.
All three of those division leaders could change. The Red Sox lead the Rays by only four and a half and have the third-hardest schedule in the American League the rest of the way, trailing only the Orioles and Mariners. But, they’re a favorite. Over the field. And the market isn’t currently reflecting that.
It’s possible it’s the schedule and the volume of potential challengers that are holding the Red Sox back from the White Sox in this ALCS market. If that’s the case, it’s overrating both those factors. If that isn’t the case, I don’t know what could be making the lines this odd. Concern Chris Sale won’t come back? Even if he doesn’t, or if he comes back in some lesser form, the Red Sox have top arms on par with those of the White Sox, and there’s a better chance the Red Sox grab the top American League seed than there is that they fall below the South Siders and have to play as the road team in the Division Series.
Multiple times so far this year we’ve placed a future on the Red Sox and immediately seen their odds shorten considerably. I expect that to happen again here.
Pick: Boston to win +500. Low confidence.
