Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,045 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the one market today—too late a start to get MLB futures in before the bell.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 54–41–1, we’re up 7.98 units, we’re up 8% (the average line on our winners has been –110). April was great, May was bad, June was good. We’re off to a good start in July.
New York (NL) @ Arizona
Kodai Senga’s rest thing is so simple it’s puzzling, because things usually aren’t that simple. He’s got adequate rest today, though, and the Mets haven’t been playing as badly as appearances would have you believe.
Pick: New York (NL) to win –115. Low confidence. (Senga and Davies must start.)
