Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,062 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a moneyline today, as we take one of our promised July days off on the futures.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 62–47–4, we’re up 11.16 units, we’re up 10% (the average line on our winners has been –107). April was great, May was bad, June was good. July’s been good, but we need to finish it strong.
New York (NL) @ New York (AL)
Domingo Germán has been better since his no-hitter, but he still hasn’t been great, recording only one quality start over three outings. Justin Verlander, meanwhile, has been looking more and more like himself lately. We know the Mets are on the verge of selling, but on the tradeoff between that serving as an opportunity and serving as a red flag, we’re on the side of opportunity.
Pick: New York (NL) to win –109. Low confidence. (Verlander and Germán must start.)
