Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,477 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.4% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Pittsburgh @ Arizona
Taylor Widener, when healthy, has gotten good results for the Diamondbacks this year. Over six starts, he has a 2.54 ERA, with Arizona winning half the times he’s been on the bump (a far cry from their 1-in-2.5 win rate across their other ninety games). At the same time, though, his peripherals have been poor. A 5.08 FIP. A 5.84 xERA. Five home runs allowed in not-quite-thirty innings.
It’s a small sample, but the FIP is rather in line with his expectations, as are the home runs. The ERA’s the part that doesn’t line up with the rest. Expect a correction. Hopefully (for us) tonight, against a Pirates offense that’s been among baseball’s eight best in July.
Pick: Over 9 (+100). Low confidence.
