Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,399 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.3% across 2,266 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks these days are mostly in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Only college basketball. We need a day to regroup on the college football futures.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 28–30. We’re down 3.72 units, but we’re 7–3 over our last ten. So that’s good.
Purdue @ Maryland
Butler @ St. John’s
Northwestern @ Illinois
Why these are the three games we see going chalk:
- Purdue already took their bad conference road loss. They got it out of their system, they learned from it, Maryland has a conference win and got that nice win in Los Angeles. The Terps should be primed to come back to earth now.
- St. John’s is the better team than Butler and is playing at home. So far in Big East play, Butler’s looked good, but both of these teams have still followed the home/road script.
- Northwestern already had their moment, in both ways. They beat Purdue, they lost to Chicago State, it’s time to be a little bit more normal. This is probably good Illinois value with Terrence Shannon Jr. out, too. He is their best player, but they’re not without depth.
Pick: Parlay – Purdue, St. John’s, Illinois to win (+155). Low confidence.
