Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 796 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 10% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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One pick for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Louisville @ Pitt
This total might be dropping, so I’ll keep it quick. The numbers point to a possession count in the low 60’s. It’s unlikely Pitt will score more than a point per possession, and they should keep Louisville from going too far over a point per possession themselves. On the aggregate, Pitt should be further than that mark than Louisville, weighting the combined points-per-possession below two.
If you’re watching, pull for Pitt to be taking shots as the shot clock’s expiring and getting back on defense. They run a thin rotation and they’re playing against a superior opponent. They have no incentive to let this game speed up.
Pick: Under 128 (-110). Low confidence.
