Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,000 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Utah State @ Wyoming
The two hottest teams in a conference with, oddly because they’re all playing each other, a lot of hot teams.
A theory I have is that Wyoming’s home court advantage is stronger this year than it’s measured to be, because those measurements have been taken in recent years, when the team’s been noncompetitive. Now, the crowd has something to cheer for, and the seven thousand feet of elevation don’t hurt.
Of course, Utah State shouldn’t be too bothered by the elevation, with Logan sitting between four and five thousand feet itself. That, though, is something the market might account for. It doesn’t seem to be accounting for how games have gone in this place lately. Maybe I’m overthinking it. Worth a shot, though.
Pick: Wyoming -1 (-105). Low confidence.
