Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 838 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 9% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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One pick for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Mississippi State @ Kentucky
Nick Weatherspoon has come on strong over the last six games, and so has his team. Mississippi State’s shrugged off an 0-3 start to SEC play to stand one game out of second place, and with the SEC as tight as it is in the ratings systems, it’s not outlandish to theorize the best team in the league might play in Starkville. Since Weatherspoon returned from suspension, Mississippi State’s climbed from 53rd to 35th in KenPom. Over these last six games, they’ve climbed from 60th to 35th.
It’s a stretch to believe the team’s recent surge should be attributed entirely to learning to play with Weatherspoon in his now-customary place, but at the same time, it’s entirely possible. We shouldn’t believe Mississippi State’s any worse than KenPom says they are, and there’s a chance they’re actually better.
Kentucky is deservedly favored in this one. While they’ve done little of note in conference play—the road victory over Arkansas is the lone significant feather in the cap at this point—they do have non-conference victories over Louisville and Texas Tech, and Rupp Arena has one of the biggest home-court advantages in college basketball.
With that being said.
This is the same team that lost to Evansville and Utah in November and December. It’s the same team that allowed Auburn to shoot 44 free throws on Saturday. Reggie Perry is good at getting to the free throw line. Reggie Perry is good at pulling down offensive rebounds. Kentucky is not exceptional at stopping either of those things. Mississippi State is a deserved underdog, but even a 33% chance of winning makes this a high-expected outcome play.
Pick: Mississippi State to win (+240). Low confidence.
