Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 851 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 8% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Just one pick tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Miami (OH) @ Toledo
It’s an enticing over, having dropped since opening and coming against the two worst defenses in MAC play, to date. But hold off. Both teams rely heavily on the three, and while neither defends it well, it’s unlikely both will have a big night from deep, especially with Miami not exactly a good shooting team as much as one that shoots often by necessity.
What’s more, neither team plays particularly fast. Between the pair, 21 conference games have been played. In only one did the possession count exceed 72 (Miami’s visit from Buffalo), and in fewer than half did it exceed the national average of 68. In a conference more up-tempo than most, this is significant, and points to a slower game tonight in which combined, the foes should struggle to break 140.
Pick: Under 142.5 (-105). Low confidence.
