Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,898 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.4% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Minnesota
There are three possibilities I can readily think of to explain why this line is so low:
The first is that Minnesota’s win in Ann Arbor the other day is being discounted because of Michigan’s struggles. Michigan has certainly struggled, but I believe they’re rather healthy, which negates this a good bit. At least some of the credit should go to the Gophers.
The second is that the market’s viewing this as a trap game for the Gophers. If they are, though, they’re viewing it as more of a trap game than any other game in the country tonight, which feels like a stretch.
The third is that the market’s looking at an 8-1 team with wins in Starkville and Ann Arbor and making less of their accomplishments than one would expect, while looking at a 9-1 team that’s beaten three non-Division I teams and nobody in the top 275 (!!) of KenPom and making more of their accomplishments than is reasonable. Good for you, Islanders. You’re playing with the big boys again now, though.
Pick: Minnesota -15.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
