Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,083 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
No MLB futures today, as we take our August day off (we don’t see any value that does a whole lot for our current portfolio, and we still need to take 6.5 more weekdays off to hit our intended units spent by the end of the regular season). Just the moneyline, then. Here’s the context.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 75–55–4, we’re up 15.52 units, we’re up 12% (the average line on our winners has been –106). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. August is going well so far.
Cleveland @ Cincinnati
Cleveland’s not in a great place, hanging on to playoff relevance by a thread. Cincinnati hasn’t been playing well either, though, and Graham Ashcraft has made it a combined 15 innings over his last two starts despite a FIP within those starts up above five. That points to a line getting juiced. We’ll take the Guards.
Pick: Cleveland to win +108. Low confidence. (Allen and Ashcraft must start.)
