Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,341 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.5% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Tampa Bay @ Boston
Tyler Glasnow was dominant in his first outing of the season, allowing just one hit and walking none over a scoreless six innings against Miami.
The Red Sox are better than the Marlins.
For all the struggles the Red Sox had over the weekend, they’re still fine on paper, just like how Glasnow, though one of the best in the game, isn’t guaranteed to throw a gem every time out there. A little overreaction to Glasnow’s first start, a little overreaction to Boston’s bad weekend, and here we are, with a little value to be had.
Pick: Boston +1.5 (-125). Low confidence.
