Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,523 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and the odds for it come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
ALCS
The Blue Jays are now just a game and a half out of a playoff spot, and two games away from being the home team in the American League Wild Card Game. Like the Yankees and Red Sox, they have their share of health issues, but they’re a comparable team on paper to both of those, they’ve been a better team than either on the year by run differential, and they have a slightly easier schedule than New York the rest of the way.
They might not still be rising, but the odds haven’t caught up yet.
Pick: Toronto to win +1800. Low confidence.
