Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 559 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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One pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Cleveland @ Chicago (AL)
Cleveland has its back against the wall entering the regular season’s final four days. They need to lose one fewer game than the Rays just to force a tiebreak game, and while the Rays get to play three games up in Toronto over the weekend—a sweep-able set—the Tribe has to travel to our nation’s capital. Tonight, then, in Chicago, is a must-win game, and even then things might be hopeless.
Thankfully, potential folk hero Aaron Civale and his 1.82 ERA/2.93 FIP is taking the mound for Cleveland. He’s been a huge asset in his nine starts, helping to keep the preseason AL Central favorites in the race. If they can pull off the improbable and crack the playoff field, he’ll deserve a lot of credit. Even if they can’t, tonight’s a night to solidify his spot in their future plans.
Pick: Under 9 (+100). Low confidence.
