Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,057 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
New York (AL) @ Toronto
Hyun-jin Ryu is not a Cy Young candidate, but he’s in the top ten in the American League in fWAR, and with an ERA just two points off of his FIP, one would imagine he’s around the same tier in bWAR as well. It’s not an easy start tonight—Sahlen Field’s been a high-scoring environment, and the Yankees are…well, the Yankees. Still, these odds are favorable.
Ryu’s played an enormous role in getting the Blue Jays this far. In his last start of the regular season, don’t be afraid to ride him.
Pick: Toronto to win -110. Low confidence.
